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Predicting Where Water Will Go In A Hurricane

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by Joel N. Shurkin, Inside Science

In most hurricanes the greatest damage is done not by the wind but from the storm surge, the mountain of water pushed by raging winds from the ocean to deluge the land.

There is always a level of unpredictability when dealing with Mother Nature, but knowing where the water would go when a storm is bearing down on the coast would be useful, particularly in densely populated coastal cities such as New York, which maintains complex systems of houses, office buildings, sidewalks, basements, alleys, subway stations, and streets clogged with parked cars.

Scientists at the College of William & Mary’s Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences at Gloucester Point, Va., reported they have a computer model that may do that, starting about 30 hours before the storm comes ashore. At least it worked in retrospect with the Hurricane Sandy, which devastated the East Coast in 2012.

Click through for an interactive map of New York City flooding and a video.

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Drones, Better Model Helps Navy Improve Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

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by Rebecca Ruiz

Forget Moby Dick’s white whale – a tropical cyclone is by far the most difficult ocean beast to track. This rotating system of clouds and thunderstorms, most commonly known to North Americans as a hurricane once it reaches a certain size and speed, is typically several hundred miles wide with winds as fast as 155 miles per hour.

These vast storms are essentially a physics puzzle, in which the interaction of moisture, wind, air, heat and other elements can trick even the most knowledgeable scientists trying to forecast both the path and intensity of a hurricane. In the last decade, weather models have gotten much better at predicting path and landfall, but they have been less skillful when trying to estimate pressure and maximum wind speeds.

So when the U.S. Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center recently launched a new hurricane prediction model capable of tracking a storm’s intensity, it was no small feat. Known as COAMPS-TC (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone), the model can accurately forecast wind strength one to five days out. This is essential information for fleets and installations that might need to evacuate or protect their facilities—under- or overestimating the strength of a storm can be a costly mistake.

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Creating Monster Winds to Advance Hurricane Safety

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by Inside Science TV

Miami residents no longer have to wait to see if their latest home improvements can withstand a hurricane that blows ashore.

Florida International University researchers have built a 12-fan simulation that can produce a category 5 hurricane’s sustained 150 mph blasts of air. The fans’ combined 8,400 horsepower can test models for hurricane-proofing even large-scale structures, and water sprayers help simulate the penetration of high-speed horizontal wind-driven rain.

FIU says the simulation, called the Wall of Wind, is the largest and most powerful university research facility of its kind.

Top Image: External view of the FIU Wall of Wind. Courtesy Florida International University.

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Vapor Manipulations

by Michael Keller

In the 1940s, GE and government researchers were trying to figure out how to weaken the destructive power of hurricanes. Part of that work involved building an understanding of how ice crystals form in clouds. These animations come from a 1947 film showing scientists making snow in a lab freezer.

GE scientists including Nobel Prize winner Irving Langmuir, Vincent Schaefer and Bernard Vonnegut studied the science of snow. Their experiments with weather control provided Bernard’s brother, Kurt, the inspiration to write Cat’s Cradle.

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